According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “This is the first time since the 2008 election that both the Conservatives and the Liberals - at the same time - are receiving less than 30 percent of the popular vote. Conversely, the NDP has not reached the 20 percent level since the fall of 2008 -- they are at an all-time high in BC; are virtually tied with the Liberals and Conservatives among female voters; and in fact lead the Conservatives among urban and suburban women. Whether the NDP is exploiting the fact that they are not the other guy or are actually generating some voter excitement, it is clear that they are benefiting from the misfortunes of the major parties"

• The last two weeks finds both the Conservatives and Liberals now below 30%. The Conservatives are at 29%, followed by the Liberals at 27%, the NDP 20%, the Greens 12% and the BQ 11%. For the NDP, this represents a level of support they haven’t reached since the weeks following the 2008 federal election.
• In Quebec, the BQ remains the clear leader, with more than twice the support of their nearest rival. The BQ stands at 45%, followed by the Liberals at 21%, the NDP 12%, the Conservatives 10% and the Greens 10%.
• The NDP is on the rise in Ontario, where the Liberals maintain a lead.
• Here, the Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives 31%, the NDP 19% and the Greens 12%.
• The NDP momentum is most pronounced in BC, where they now lead.
• Here the New Democrats are at 31%, followed by the Conservatives at 30%, the Liberals 21% and the Greens 18%.
• Conservative strength on the Prairies is being challenged by the NDP in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
  • In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservative lead is down to 8 points. Here, they lead with 39%, followed by 31% for the NDP, 16% for the Liberals, and 12% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives remain unchallenged in Alberta, standing at 56%, to 16% for the Liberals, 14% for the Greens and 12% for the NDP.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead by eight points. Here, they stand at 39%, to 31% for the Conservatives, 24% for the NDP and 5% for the Greens.
• The NDP is becoming an important player in the race to win female voters. Among women, the Liberals are at 28%, followed by the Conservatives with 26%, the NDP 24%, the Greens 11%, and the BQ 10%. Among Urban and Suburban women, the Liberals remain in front with 29%, the NDP is now second with 25%, followed by the Conservatives with 22%, the BQ 12% and the Greens 10%.

These data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between April 15 and April 25 2010 for 2,014 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

Atlantic - +/- 6.9%
Quebec - +/- 4.4%
Ontario - +/- 3.8%
Man/Sask - +/- 6.9%
Alberta – +/- 6.9%
B.C. - +/- 6.2%